Given the challenges consumers now face, the current TED proposal deserves a hard second look and an open, honest debate. As currently drafted, steep excise tax increases risk compounding inflationary pressures. According to the Commission’s own Impact Assessment (SWD) →, the proposed option would add 0.55 percentage points to EU inflation – further squeezing purchasing power and disproportionately affecting lower income citizens. That increase alone amounts to roughly one quarter of the ECB’s 2% inflation ceiling.

Aggressive fiscal and regulatory measures can backfire when they ignore market realities. Despite acknowledging these risks, the Commission has set aside more proportionate options identified in the TED Impact Assessment.
Excessive taxation erodes purchasing power and diverts consumers to illicit channels, undermining public health goals and tax revenues. Instead of stabilizing the legal market through a measured, compliance-oriented approach, one dimensional responses risk exacerbating pressure on the purchasing power of lower income consumers.

Thoughtful policy design must reflect economic realities. As President von der Leyen urged leaders to meet people where they are, this is the moment to align the TED proposal with that same call. If the aim is to prevent tax evasion while avoiding cost-of-living shocks and preserving continuity, then cost-of-living resilience must be the guiding principle, not an afterthought.